I've been wrong about so much already that I was hesitant to even post this. Off the top of my head:

- Greece will give America a game.
- Argentina will give America a game.
- Team USA will not dominate every team it plays.
- Carlos Boozer will see more time than Chris Bosh.
- Carmelo Anthony will be the key to Team USA's offense.
- Dwyane Wade will pull a Vince Carter circa 2000, from an attitude stand point.

Thankfully I did not get caught up in the Jason Kidd love fest or make an argument for Australia pulling off an upset in the quarterfinals. Still the fact that I have Manu Ginobili's epic quote to Craig Sager "I'm telling you we, we play till we die" running through my head only added to my hesitation.

Having said all that I can't imagine the Argentinians emerging victorious. For starters they are not deep enough. And that's before you take Andres Nocioni's injury into account. After that I see a couple of issues:

1. The American defense has been really, really good. After all of the talk about hitting 3-pointers, playing the international game, and everything else, the American formula has been pretty simple. Get an outrageously talented core - Kobe, LeBron, a healthy Wade, Paul, and to a lesser extent Carmelo - fill in the other roster spots, and play ridiculous defense. It has been something to watch. And yes Bosh has been fantastic.

2. On the flip side Argentina's offense is clearly not Princeton's reincarnated. I'm a little late to the party on this one so I'll direct your attention to 48 Minutes of Hell's take (Hat tip Ball Don't Lie):

"Ball Movement: The nature of Argentina's ball movement caught me off guard. I think of them as being a very fluid team, having several guys who are effective passers. Really, even Oberto is a decent passer for his position. But they seemed to run a lot of isolation sets through Delfino, Ginobili, and Nocioni. If Argentina can't learn to make some safer, crisper passes, I am not sure how they are going to survive against the "steal first" USA defense."

Agreed. Hey my respect for Ginobili is a given. And Carlos Delfino was fantastic offensively against Greece. But I just don't see them taking down the vaunted American defense.

3. I can already picture Team Argentina racking up fouls. That's not going to help.

I was a little surprised by how much both teams complained to the referees. It was like a NBA game at points. At the same that was a very minor part of an incredibly entertaining game. Just awesome to watch. And the following stood out to me:

Honorable Mention:

- Both coaches had emotional outbursts that were in no way forced. Rather they fit with the intensity of the game.

- Carlos Delfino's dragon tattoo.

10. The cheering sections. Despite a solid showing from the Argentinian fans, the Greeks appeared to have more of a presence, in terms of numbers and noise.

8. Sofoklis Schortsanitis only played 4 minutes. In that time he made one bucket, missed 2 free throws, knocked Luis Scola down with a pick, and threw a ton of elbows and forearm shivers.

7. Due to the physical play of Schortsanitis the Argentinians had to worry about Fabricio Oberto, Andres Nocioni, and Luis Scola getting into either foul trouble or a fight. Enter Roman Gonzalez. Don't get me wrong, there's a reason he only played 1:46. He's a big dude that no one would describe as mobile or offensively gifted. Still there's always a place on this blog for a player with a fu manchu that's out there to throw his body around.

via www.fiba.com

6. Some people may criticize the Greeks for taking a 3 in the waning seconds, even though they only trailed by 2. I'm not one of those people. I also enjoyed Scola attacking that rebound and the Argentinians' jumping, chanting, circle dance celebration.

5. Following Manu Ginobili's ridiculous driving lay up (more on this later) that put Argentina up 5 (80-75) with 46 seconds to go, the Greeks had an awful offensive possession. After 2 near turnovers it degenerated into Panagiotis Vasilopoulos and Dimitrious Diamantidis playing hot potato behind the 3-point arc. I counted 4 pump fakes and 3 passes before Vasilopoulos banked a 3-pointer. It gave Greece a chance.

4. Carlos Delfino. He scored 23 points on efficient shooting (9 of 14 from the field, 5 of 8) from deep. And a few of those shots were definitely, "What the hell I'm feeling it" type shots. My favorite was a rainbow 3 from the corner during a stretch when both teams were firing away from outside.

3. Antonios Fotsis. Yes he had 17 points, 10 rebounds, and a solid day from deep (3-5). More importantly he hit a few shots when it looked like Argentina would run away with it. He hit a 3 that cut Argentina's lead to 4 with 7:30 remaining in the game. Later he tied it at 66. I definitely underestimated him heading into the Olympics.

2. The closing minutes of the third quarter degenerated into a series of intense, physical possessions. It made me think, "These teams really care and they may despise each other." That made it fun.

1. Manu freaking Ginobili. Yes Delfino was excellent. But it's always good to step back and reflect on how nasty Ginobili is. My 3 favorite plays from him:

- With about 50 seconds left in the game Ginobili drove right into the lane and then flipped a left handed floater up and in for a 5-point lead.

- His 3 straight 3-pointers in the first quarter. At least 2 of them were step back 3s.

- After just failing to break up an ally oop on the previous defensive possession Ginobili had a huge block on a fast break lay up attempt by Fotsis. The basket would have given the Greeks a 1-point lead. Instead Ginobili blocked it off the backboard to a teammate before crashing into the stands.

Bonus points because Ginobili said the following to Craig Sager, "I'm telling you we, we play till we die." Awesome.

Quick recap for now:

Spain dispatched upstart Croatia with a 72-59 victory that saw Pau Gasol throw up a 20-10. Is it a good thing that Marc Gasol and Ricky Rubio had the same amount of rebounds (6)?

Yao Ming's Olympic dream came to an end thanks to Sarunas Jasikevicius (5 of 6 from 3-point land) and company. And it wasn't close.

Australia hung with Team USA for a while (25-24 after 1). And then the Americans exploded for a 116-85 victory.

Now it's all about Greece, Argentina, and GINOBILI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! In fact it just tipped off. Currently Luis Scola is getting buckets. He just set a mean pick too.

More later...

Spain/Germany: Unlike the US the Spanish have messed around with their starting 5 to so far. This was evident in their opener when Marc Gasol got the nod over his older brother and yesterday when Jose Calderon came off the bench. In this one the  Spanish were determined to not let Dirk Nowitzki beat them. To that end they threw double and triple teams at him and forced Dirk into 11 points on 5 of 15 from the field (1 of 6 from deep) and zero foul shots. Some other interesting stats from the box score:

1. The Spaniards enjoyed advantages in rebounds (41-30), steals (8-3), and turnovers (8-18).

2. Chris Kaman grabbed 1/3 of Germany's rebounds.

3. Strangely Spain was noticeably worse from the field, finishing the game at a 38% clip, while Germany connected on 45%. Both teams hit 22 field goals.

Randomly enjoy this picture, which has nothing to do with this game or these countries, as you head into the jump:

via en.ce.cn

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For an explanation of the "Inside the Box Score" posts go here. 

Lithuania/Iran: I watched the majority of this one and was struck by 2 things:

1. It reminded me of USA/China in the sense that the Iranians kept it close through one quarter and then got blown out from that point on, particularly in the second quarter when the Lithuanians ripped off a 31-14 run.

2. Linas Kleiza has a mean streak. Trust me on this one.

On to the box score. Lithuania was significantly better in turnovers (16 to 23), steals (18 to 6), and field goal percentage (57% to 31%). Not surprisingly the Lithuanians ended up with a 32-point victory. Although I will say this, Hamed Ehadadi (21 points, 9 rebounds) played hard, even if he had 8 turnovers. That's a lot. Bonus points because it seemed like Ehadadi sweat so much that the red numbers on the back of his jersey smudged. You be the judge:

Hamed Ehadid - Smudged Shirt?

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This is the 5th preview in a series here at Green Bandwagon and At The Hive, as we anxiously await for Olympic basketball to get under way. You can check both of our sidebars for the archive or simply click on these links: China, Greece, Russia, and Argentina. Catch Australia here today and head over to At The Hive tomorrow for the next installment.

Population: 20,600,856

Size in Comparison to a US State: A little smaller than the US, minus Alaska and Hawaii.

Suffrage: Universal and compulsory at 18.

Interesting Fact: Utah Utes went first in the NBA (Andrew Bogut) and NFL (Alex Smith) drafts back in 2005. Are the 49ers and Bucks happy with their decisions?

Interesting Fact #2: I realize that the Simpsons have faded when it comes to animated TV shows. As far as I can tell Family Guy and South Park have left it in their dust. Long gone are the days when the Simpsons were must see TV for me every week and some of my friends were not allowed to watch it. As a side note I can't imagine how the people who were offended by, "Eat my shorts man" are dealing with the South Park era. Yet I digress. Even though it's odd to reference the Simpsons in back-to-back previews, I want to point out that the Australian episode was easily in the top 5 all time. For what it's worth the Prohibition/Beer Baron episode is #1. It's not close. And yes I feel good about taking the high road and not talking about a certain Paul Hogan movie for my obligatory pop culture reference.

Recommended Reading: Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel is an interesting read, whether you agree with it or not. Meanwhile, On the Beach is a classic, albeit a depressing one.

World Rank (Courtesy of FIBA): 9

Qualified: Oceanian Champion

Dream Match Up in Beijing: China

Dream Match Up That Did Not Qualify: New Zealand or UK

Recent News: The Australians are known as the Boomers and have quite a streak going in terms of qualifying for the Olympics. 

Catch player profiles after the jump.

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Expect one of these previews for each team during the lead up to the first basketball games in Beijing. Few points before this getting underway:

- I'm fascinated when countries that have fought wars with each other or have colonial history meet in athletic competition. That is often the criteria for the "Dream Match Up" scenarios.

- I've never examined Olympic basketball this closely. And I was struck by the fact that the top 12 teams don't make it because of the qualifying rules, which take regions into account.

- There are some real under the radar guys on national teams. I had a hard time digging up information on a few players in particular.

Population: 10,722,816

Size in Comparison to a US State: Roughly Alabama (slightly smaller)

Suffrage: Universal and compulsory at 18.

Interesting Fact: It's somewhat depressing how many teenagers I know get the bulk of their Ancient Greek history from the movie 300.

Recommended Reading: Oedipus the King - Gives credence to the "there's nothing new under the sun" mindset.

World Rank (Courtesy of FIBA): 6

Qualified: Earned spot at FIBA's Olympic Qualifying Tournament

Dream Match Up in Beijing: USA (Extend win streak?)

Dream Match Up That Did Not Qualify: Turkey

Recent News: The Greeks are peaking as they prepare for Beijing.

Check out the players after the jump...

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FIBA recently released the field and schedule for the Olympics. USA vs. China on day one. Nothing says international incident like dominating the host country. So that could be interesting. And on day 2 the Americans play Angola of Charles Barkley/spear fame. I'm also fired up for Spain/Greece, Lithuania/Argentina, and Iran vs. anybody. Oh yeah Manu Ginobili is in too. Awesome. 

I caught game 7 of the Spurs/Hornets series and was struck by Tim Duncan’s performance. He finished with 16 points (5-17 from the field) and 14 rebounds. Furthermore, his last points came from the free throw line with 6:27 left in the 4th quarter. The Big Fundamental then missed his final three shots and saw Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili carry the scoring load down the stretch. Contrast that to Kevin Garnett’s game 7 against the Cavaliers when he scored 13 points (5-13 shooting), grabbed 13 rebounds and watched Paul Pierce have the game of his life.

I am not saying KG is a better player than Duncan or that the Spurs superstar is not clutch. But it’s easy for us to assign reputations to individuals and teams and then view events with those reputations in mind. It’s a crutch we fall back on because it is incredibly useful when formulating stories. For example Rasheed Wallace’s performance Tuesday night – 11 points (3-12 from the floor), 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and a turnover – was not a question of clutch play. Rather Wallace is known as someone who may or may not show up to play on any given night. Now Wallace and KG have both earned their respective reputations – disinterested and anti-clutch. My concern is that we tend to ignore performances that do not fit with our pre conceived story lines. When KG does step up what do we say? If Duncan puts forth a pedestrian performance by his standards and yet it only adds to his legend and that of his team’s, is there something wrong? Is there a self-fulfilling prophecy at play here? If a player answers enough questions on the same topic, sees that opinion on TV constantly and in general can’t escape it, does it eventually impact his game?

The fact is no player is as good or bad as his reputation. And if those reputations are built without all the facts something is amiss. Ultimately the margin between winning and losing is a lot smaller than we like to admit. And yet we try to explain the outcome of events in the simplest of terms. This is something that has always bothered me. For example if a team goes to the Super Bowl, does not have a curfew and loses we'll talk about their lack of discipline and focus. But if that team acts the exact same way and wins then it is complimented for being loose and not getting caught up in all the pressure. Hey I'm guilty of it. By my count I've written two "Uh oh here goes KG in the clutch" posts in the playoffs already. My posts in general are littered with this type of lazy analysis. Something to think about...